# **MPD-400: Predictable Product Development**  Designing outsized returns through early-stage experimentation and power law principles.

**Fall 2026**

**Adjunct Lecturers**
Martin Ringlein (martin.ringlein@northwestern.edu)
Will Hubbard (will.hubbard@northwestern.edu)

## **Overview**

From an intro to Product Development to the future of Product Development. Predictable Product Development explores how transformative products are conceived, validated, and scaled in environments of uncertainty. Students will learn to think in leaps rather than steps, using frameworks such as first principles reasoning, jobs-to-be-done (JTBD), RFM, RICE, power law, portfolio dynamics, and others. The course integrates the history and evolution of product management with modern experimentation practices, data-driven decision making, and product-led growth strategies. Each lecture blends conceptual foundations with actionable frameworks, supported by weekly assignments that prepare students for the final project. By the end of the quarter, students will be equipped with the mindset and tools to consistently identify asymmetric upside, structure product bets, and scale ideas from 1 to N.

## **Course Learning Objectives**

Students will be able to:

1. Connect the history of product management to modern practice by extracting durable principles and applying AI-native, experiment-led workflows.
2. Employ venture perspectives in product strategy, using principles like the Power Law and J-curve to shape better product portfolio strategies.
3. Operationalize an experimentation system that standardizes hypotheses, guardrails, analysis, and decision cadences so tests reliably drive the roadmap.
4. Strategize and implement effective collaboration mechanisms, understand the value of partnerships, and optimize communication strategies with diverse teams and stakeholders.
5. Identify and size whitespace using the Innovation Adoption Curve, backcasting, and market scans to choose sharp wedges with asymmetric upside.
6. Apply frameworks such as RICE, MSCW, and JTBD to structure hypothesis-driven experiments, prioritize features, and validate product-market fit.
7. Combine quantitative insights with qualitative research to craft actionable stories that reveal user needs, guide decision-making, and align teams on product direction.
8. Develop and test distribution strategies (pricing, channel selection, growth loops) to accelerate adoption and optimize product launch outcomes.
9. Segment and analyze consumer behavior using the RFM framework to fine-tune product iterations and align with user and market needs.
10. Translate research, experimentation results, and strategic frameworks into persuasive pitches that influence senior stakeholders and cross-functional teams.

## **Course Organization**

* **Attendance is mandatory**. Should you need to miss a class, contact the instructor(s) via email at least 24 hours prior to the scheduled start time to arrange a make-up assignment. Missing a class without prior arrangement will result in a one grade level deduction. More than two unexcused absences will lead to a failing grade for the course.
* **You are responsible for thorough preparation and active contribution to every class session.** Students enrich the learning environment with diverse information and perspectives. Engaging in dialogue enhances your ability to apply course concepts to real-world scenarios. Actively expressing ideas, responding to peers, and refining your perceptions during discussions facilitate learning. Please be aware that instructors may "cold call" students, and participation will affect your overall grade.
* **Each class will include time for short meetings between the instructor(s) and teams, possibly before or after class.** The aim is to keep the instructors abreast of progress and to facilitate feedback. This will ensure alignment of project expectations with course requirements, while accommodating the constraints of time, budget, and schedule inherent to a product development project.

## **Required Course Materials**

Weekly lecture notes will be made available through Canvas.

Textbooks:

* The Power Law, by Sebastian Mallaby
* Crossing the Chasm, by G. Moore

Additional required readings for upcoming classes will be announced and made available in advance. All essential course materials—including readings, lecture presentations, class notes, and assignments—will be shared via Canvas.

## **Course Schedule**

| Date | Focus |
| :---- | :---- |
| Fri, 9/25 8:30am – 11:30am | **Module 1: Introduction — Thinking in Leaps, Not Steps. Designing for Transformative Impact The History & Evolution of Product Management:** Overview of the evolution of product development practices from traditional waterfall models to modern agile and lean methodologies,design thinking, and the double diamond framework. Examination of key drivers of change including technological advancements, market dynamics, and customer behavior. **Prediction Mechanisms:** Develop institutionalized methods for spotting leading indicators, running rapid experiments, and iterating quickly, turning guesswork into increasingly accurate foresight.  **First Principles Thinking:** Study of decomposing problems into primitives, constraints, and invariants to expose binding bottlenecks. Reconstruction of solution options from fundamentals with testable assumptions and minimal falsification experiments. **Power Law Distribution:** Examination of fat-tailed returns in product portfolios and experiment funnels. Implications for budget allocation, kill criteria, and rapid doubling-down on emergent outliers. **Jobs-to-be-Done [Framework]:** Instead of focusing on demographics or surface-level wants, JTBD looks at the underlying “job” a user is hiring a product or service to do in a specific context.  **Assignment:** Using the JTBD framework, select a specific user segment from your assigned company, look at the underlying “job” that the user is hiring your product or service to do in a specific context. Using the JTBD canvas, identify these jobs along with the pains, motivations, and desired outcomes driving them. |
| Sat, 10/03 1:00pm – 4:00pm  | **Module 2: Data & Research — Behavioral Informed Decision Making. Conviction vs. Consensus Human-Centered Design Principles:** Survey of context-rich inquiry, POV synthesis, and prototyping at fidelity matched to the question. Emphasis on recruiting rigor, evidence quality, and ethical practice across methods. **Kano Model [Delight vs. Necessity]**: Classification of must-be, performance, and delighters with drift over time. Translation of signals into acceptance criteria and roadmap implications tied to evolving value curves. **Data-Driven Decision Making**: Specification of the decision, success metrics, and instrumentation before data collection. Design of causal tests with guardrails to prevent confounding, vanity metrics, and p-hacking. **Behavioral Economics [Maslow’s Law]**:  Analysis of loss aversion, present bias, and choice overload that impede adoption and retention. Patterns for choice architecture and friction removal to improve conversion. **MSCW Method [Framework]:** Technique for scope control using Must/Should/Could/Won’t under explicit constraints. Linkage to dependencies, measurable outcomes, and periodic recategorization as evidence evolves. **Assignment:** Using the MSCW method, identify and categorize data collection points for a hypothetical company. Deploy the Data Radar framework to map how these data points align with the company’s strategic product goals.  |
| Fri, 10/09 12:30pm – 3:30pm  | **Module 3: Rapid Prototyping & Experimentation — More Shots on Goal. Fail Fast, Learn Cheap Agile Product Development Fundamentals:** Design of cadenced planning, small batches, WIP limits, and crisp definitions of done to maximize flow. Preference for outcome-oriented planning, short feedback loops, and visible queues. **AI & Agentic Workflows**: Study of LLM capabilities, retrieval/tool calling, and orchestration patterns that compress cycle time. Evaluation harnesses, rollback criteria, and cost/safety controls for production deployment. **Strategic Sourcing Framework [Build vs. Buy vs. Partner]:** Framework for selecting approach by time-to-value, TCO, differentiation, capability risk, and lock-in. Governance for integration boundaries and co-development when the capability is strategic. **Innovation Adoption Curve [Crossing the Chasm]:** Segmentation from innovators to early majority with distinct requirements. Playbooks for “whole product” assembly, positioning, and channels that bridge the chasm. **Backcasting [Framework]**: Method for mapping from target end-state back to the first tractable experiment. Use of risk surfacing, dependency ordering, and evidence gates to govern progression.  **Assignment:** Using the Backcasting framework, envision a desired future state for your assigned company’s product, service or customer experience. Based on this vision, map out the milestones, decisions, and resources required to make that future possible. Craft strategic recommendations to achieve these improvements. |
| Sat, 10/17 1:00pm – 4:00pm  | **Module 4: Power Law Dynamics — Product Portfolio Theory. Asymmetric Upside Orientation Venture Mindset in Product Development**: Analysis of how product management can draw from venture principles. Examination of tools like the Power Law for increasing "shots-on-goal" and the J-curve to embrace early failures for long-term success. **Pareto Principle [80/20 Rule]**: Analysis of the vital few inputs that drive the majority of outcomes. Operating cadence and instrumentation that concentrate team energy where leverage is highest. **Blue Ocean Strategy [Barbell Theory]**: Construction of new value curves to create uncontested space while maintaining a resilient core and a decision making operating system. Pairing of exploratory edge bets with durable core improvements to balance risk and upside. **The Innovator’s Dilemma [Disruptive Innovation]**: Focus on the intricacies presented by emerging regulations in the backdrop of rapidly evolving technologies. Integration of the Data Radar framework to navigate and manage personal data throughout its lifecycle, ensuring compliance and transparency. **RICE [Framework]**: Prioritization model using Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort with transparent assumptions. Sensitivity analysis and periodic recalibration as real-world data arrives. **Assignment:** Using the RICE framework, select 6–8 candidate features or experiments for your assigned company. For each, state Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort, compute the RICE score, and submit a rank-ordered list with 1–2 paragraphs justifying your top choice.  |
| Fri, 10/23 12:30pm – 3:30pm | **Module 5: Conclusion — Scaling from 1 to n. Designing for Growth & Distribution Market Dynamics and Product Positioning**: Alignment of positioning with market structure, competitive intensity, and unit economics. Selection of a sharp initial wedge and pricing architecture consistent with adoption dynamics. **Feedback Loops [Metcalfe's Law]:** Modeling of network, data, and brand loops as compounding mechanisms. Monitoring of leading indicators and interventions when loops stall or create negative externalities. **Partnerships, Collaboration, and Co-opetition**: Approach to ecosystem, channel, and data partnerships that accelerate scale. Structures for incentives, governance, and conflict resolution in co-opetitive contexts. **Trust, Transparency & Ethical Design [PESTLE]:** Integration of privacy, explainability, safety, and fairness as first-order design constraints. Lightweight PESTLE risk register with mitigations and pre-scale guardrails. **RFM [Framework]**: Segmentation of customers by Recency, Frequency, and Monetary value to focus lifecycle interventions. Cohort tracking and movement goals that expand high-value segments over time. **Assignment:** Using the RFM framework, analyze your assigned company’s user behavior. Based on this analysis, identify potential modifications to product features to drive better recency, frequency, or monetary value from the users. Craft strategic recommendations to achieve these improvements. |

## **Student Expectations**

Active participation is expected from students in this course as it greatly enhances the learning experience. We strongly encourage students to ask questions throughout the course, even when feeling confused or frustrated about a topic. Both instructors and fellow students can serve as valuable resources. Students will be amazed by the knowledge they can gain from their classmates. Additionally, students will be required to read course materials before each lesson, so it is essential to plan ahead and manage time wisely.

## **Grading**

**Class Project (40%)**
Each student group will present their learnings and final deliverables including:

* Business case (pitch deck) tailored to senior management for a new product to be prioritized on upcoming product roadmap
* Detailed product requirements document
* Working prototype of product

**Assignments (20%)**
Assignments will align closely with the class project as milestones towards the final deliverable and presentation.

**Attendance and Participation (40%)**
Attendance and participation will be recorded every class. Completing activities that carry no explicit grade are also a part of your participation grade. Remote classroom attendance, not pre arranged prior to the course, will result in a 50% lower grade for that class. Failure to attend a class in person or remote, will result in a letter grade reduction for participation, unless otherwise excused (see Exceptions to Class Modality section).

## **Diversity and Inclusion**

A core aspect of Predictable Product Development is collectively creating learning environments where we all treat each other with respect. Where individuals of all ages, backgrounds, beliefs, ethnicities, gender identities and expressions, national origins, religious affiliations, sexual orientations, ability and other visible and non-visible differences feel welcome to contribute in open and honest exchanges. To achieve this, we request that you listen to each other and not talk at each other; that you seek to dialogue rather than debate; that you acknowledge differences amongst us in backgrounds, skills, interests, and values; and that you are open to appreciating that these very differences will increase our awareness and understanding, and will help us learn from each other.

We further request that you consider both the intent and impact of your words and actions. Taking responsibility for our best intentions does not negate the negative impact we may have on someone. As instructors, we will hold ourselves and you accountable by challenging ourselves and you to be quick to reflect, express apology and be open to learning when we do not understand. Finally, we request that you approach with curiosity and not judgment, and trust that people are attempting to balance openness and vulnerability, within the imperfect standards of perfection, mastery, and understanding.

## **Academic Integrity**

All papers submitted for credit in this course must be submitted electronically unless otherwise instructed by the professor(s). Your written work may be tested for plagiarized content. For details regarding academic integrity at Northwestern or to download the guide, visit: [https://www.northwestern.edu/provost/policies/academic-integrity/index.html](https://www.northwestern.edu/provost/policies/academic-integrity/index.html)

You have also signed the MPDD/Northwestern University Honor Code in your admissions paperwork. The Honor Code states: "each student is obligated to not seek an unfair advantage over other students, including but not limited to giving or receiving unauthorized aid during completion of academic requirements, plagiarism, copying, or using the work of other students to one's advantage."

Plagiarism, defined as "intentionally or knowingly representing the words or ideas of another as one's own in any academic exercise," or any other form of academic dishonesty are grounds for failure or expulsion. This includes not only words, but also ideas and interpretations of data including Artificial Intelligence platforms like ChatGPT. Al platforms may however, be used for creative inspiration, prompt generation for research, or other assistive research techniques.

All work or intellectual material not original with the writer must be appropriately attributed to its source and documented. At Northwestern, all cases of suspected plagiarism are required to be reported directly to the Dean, who directs the review process for all suspected violations of Academic Integrity. Once a suspected incident of plagiarism has been reported to the Dean, it is out of the instructor's hands and cannot be discussed with the instructor.

Therefore, be careful that your work represents your own thinking, writing, and effort. If you are uncertain about committing a possible violation, speak to your professor(s).

## **Accessibility**

Northwestern University is committed to providing the most accessible learning environment as possible for students with disabilities. Should you anticipate or experience disability-related barriers in the academic setting, please contact AccessibleNU to move forward with the university's established accommodation process (e: [accessiblenu@northwestern.edu](mailto:accessiblenu@northwestern.edu); p: 847-467-5530). If you already have established accommodations with AccessibleNU, please let the instructor(s) know as soon as possible, preferably within the first two weeks of the term, so we can work together to implement your disability accommodations. Disability information, including academic accommodations, is confidential under the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act.

## **COVID-19 Classroom Expectations**

Students, faculty, and staff must comply with University expectations regarding appropriate classroom behavior, including those outlined below and in the COVID-19 Code of Conduct ([https://www.northwestern.edu/communitystandards/about-us/northwestern-university-student-expectations-covid-19-code-of-conduct.html](https://www.northwestern.edu/communitystandards/about-us/northwestern-university-student-expectations-covid-19-code-of-conduct.html)). With respect to classroom procedures, this includes:

* Policies regarding masking and social distancing evolve as the public health situation changes. Students are responsible for understanding and complying with current masking, testing, Symptom Tracking, and social distancing requirements.
* In some classes, masking and/or social distancing may be required as a result of an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADAccommodation for the instructor or a student in the class even when not generally required on campus. In such cases, the instructor will notify the class.
* No food is allowed inside classrooms. Drinks are permitted, but please keep your face covering on and use a straw.
* Faculty may assign seats in some classes to help facilitate contact tracing in the event that a student tests positive for COVID-19. Students must sit in their assigned seats.

If a student fails to comply with the COVID-19 Code of Conduct
([https://www.northwestern.edu/communitystandards/about-us/northwestern-university-student-expectations-covid-19-code-of-conduct.html](https://www.northwestern.edu/communitystandards/about-us/northwestern-university-student-expectations-covid-19-code-of-conduct.html)) or other University expectations related to COVID-19, the instructor may ask the student to leave the class. The instructor is asked to report the incident to the Office of Community Standards for additional follow-up.

## **COVID-19 Testing Compliance**

To protect the health of our community, Northwestern University requires unvaccinated students who are in on-campus programs to be tested for COVID-19 twice per week.
Students who fail to comply with current or future COVID-19 testing protocols will be referred to the Office of Community standards to face disciplinary action, including escalation up to restriction from campus and suspension.

## **Exceptions to Class Modality**

Class sessions for this course will occur in person. Individual students will not be granted permission to attend remotely except as the result of an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) accommodation as determined by AccessibleNU.

Maintaining the health of the community remains our priority. If you are experiencing any symptoms of COVID do not attend class and update your Symptom Tracker application right away to connect with Northwestern's Case Management Team for guidance on next steps. Contact the instructor(s) as soon as possible to arrange to complete coursework.

Students who experience a personal emergency should contact the instructor(s) as soon as possible to arrange to complete coursework.

Should public health recommendations prevent in person class from being held on a given day, the instructor(s) or the university will notify students.

## **Guidance on Class Recordings**

This class or portions of this class will be recorded by the instructor for educational purposes. Your instructor(s) will communicate how members of the class can access the recordings. Portions of the course that contain images, questions or commentary/discussion by students will be edited out of any recordings that are saved beyond the current term.

## **Prohibition of Recording Class Sessions by Students**

Unauthorized student recording of classroom or other academic activities (including advising sessions or office hours) is prohibited. Unauthorized recording is unethical and may also be a violation of University policy and state law. Students requesting the use of assistive technology as an accommodation should contact AccessibleNU ([https://www.northwestern.edu/accessiblenu/](https://www.northwestern.edu/accessiblenu/)). Unauthorized use of classroom recordings - including distributing or posting them - is also prohibited. Under the University's Copyright Policy ([https://www.invo.northwestern.edu/invention-disclosure/policies-forms/copyright-policy](https://www.invo.northwestern.edu/invention-disclosure/policies-forms/copyright-policy)) faculty own the copyright to instructional materials - including those resources created specifically for the purposes of instruction, such as syllabi, lectures and lecture notes, and presentations. Students cannot copy, reproduce, display, or distribute these materials. Students who engage in unauthorized recording, unauthorized use of a recording, or unauthorized distribution of instructional materials will be referred to the appropriate University office for follow-up.

## **Support for Wellness and Mental Health**

Northwestern University is committed to supporting the wellness of our students. Student Affairs has multiple resources to support student wellness and mental health. If you are feeling distressed or overwhelmed, please reach out for help. Students can access confidential resources through the Counseling and Psychological Services (CAPS), Religious and Spiritual Life (RSL) and the Center for Awareness, Response and Education (CARE). Additional information on all of the resources mentioned above can be found here:

* [https://www.northwestern.edu/counseling](https://www.northwestern.edu/counseling_(https://www.northwestern.edu/counseling!))
* [https://www.northwestern.edu/religious-life/](https://www.northwestern.edu/religious-life/)
* [https://www.northwestern.edu/care/](https://www.northwestern.edu/care/)